Vulnerability of Highland Agriculture: Current and Future Climate Change Scenarios. Insights from Nan Province, Thailand

The knowledge product “Vulnerability of Highland Agriculture: Current and Future Climate Change Scenarios – Insights from Nan Province, Thailand” assesses how climate change is affecting smallholder highland farming systems in northern Thailand, with a detailed case study from Bua Yai subdistrict in Nan Province. Using climate projections, crop modelling, and a livelihood-based vulnerability index, the study finds that highland agriculture is highly exposed to rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, droughts, floods, soil erosion, and declining soil fertility, compounded by small landholdings, rainfed farming, weak market access, and limited adaptive capacity. The assessment shows that vulnerability is likely to increase under future climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585), especially for maize-based monoculture systems that are driving deforestation and household indebtedness. The report emphasizes the need for locally tailored, community-based adaptation strategies, climate-smart agriculture, alternative crops, improved water management, and stronger local institutions to build climate resilience in Thailand’s fragile highland ecosystems.