Analysis the long-term impact of low carbon transport policy in Jakarta City

Under the Paris Agreement, the Jakarta city government as non-state actor is preparing the Indonesia first longterm strategy at sub-national/province level through the Low Carbon Development Strategy (LCDS) to achieve Jakarta’s target 2050. The strategy was developed based on the existing masterplan and future development plan. The article aims to analyse the impact of strategy on public transport development, electrification of vehicles and biofuel program and its impact on GHG emission in Jakarta 2050. Two scenarios of business as usual associated GHG emissions without considering mitigation effort while countermeasures scenarios were developed to envision pathways to achieve low carbon city. We used a non-linear programming model ExSS GAMS v 23.3 to analyse the impact of transformative actions on transport sectors in Jakarta city. The use of alternative biofuel from the biodiesel for commercial trucks provide a large GHG emission reductions in the mid-term while the electrification of vehicles and improvement of fuel efficiency of public transport provide large GHG emission in the long-term. The massive developments of public transports supported by urban infrastructures such as pedestrian walkway encourages the modal shift from private vehicles, however, the impacts on GHG emission relatively small due to large share of travel demand by private vehicles. To maximising the impact of electrification of vehicles, upstream policy on renewable energy in necessary and combine with the downstream policies to increase diffusion of electric vehicles. A complimentary policies and strategies on travel demand managements is needed to increase the modal shift from private vehicles to public transport in Jakarta city.