Beyond the adaptation finance gap: Towards a more effective adaptation framework

This paper critically reassesses the dominant narrative that insufficient adaptation finance is the primary obstacle to climate change adaptation in developing countries. Through a comprehensive review of UNEP's 2023 Adaptation Gap Report (AGR2023), which has played a pivotal role in shaping this narrative, the paper uncovers serious methodological challenges in the estimation of the adaptation finance gap. These challenges are rooted in deeper, underexplored structural issues within the UNFCCC’s adaptation framework. Chief among these is the absence of clear boundaries for adaptation activities and the conflation of costs associated with human-induced climate change (HI-CC) and natural climate change (N-CC). This conflation creates a misalignment between National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and the UNFCCC’s core mandates, complicating the assessment of adaptation finance needs. By illuminating these overlooked issues, the paper advocates for more rigorous, evidence-based discussions at COP, urging a closer examination of the data underpinning climate negotiations. It argues that the complex challenges of adaptation—such as the lack of universally agreed targets and the difficulty in disentangling human and natural climate impacts—demand more precise, carefully designed solutions. Ultimately, addressing these systemic issues is vital to ensuring that adaptation efforts are both equitable and effective, enabling more resilient outcomes for all developing countries.