Outlook and Response Options

• Since its inception, ASEAN has had a vision of an integrated, sustainable, harmonious,
peaceful, and productive region, with its “One Vision, One Identity, One Community”.
• The three complementary communities, APSC, AEC, and ASCC, all include aspects of the
future environmental conditions and quality of life desired for all ASEAN people, aligned with
ASEAN Community Vision 2025.
• Beyond 2025 and looking back from 2050, two possible scenarios were examined (i) business
as usual, which continues current trends; and (ii) accelerated transformation towards a
sustainable future, which would be in line with the respective ASEAN community “blueprints”.
• Overall, the business-as-usual scenario is unsustainable and likely to reduce overall human
well-being including increased environmental and health damage, food insecurity, and
deteriorating infrastructure, resulting in high economic costs and lost jobs.
• In contrast, the accelerated transformation scenario will put ASEAN much closer to realizing
its vision. Well-being will be significantly higher with much better health, greater food security,
inclusive and sustainable development, and overall economic prosperity with the substantial
expansion of green jobs.
• The most likely outcome is that the trajectory of most or all AMS will be somewhere between the
“business-as-usual” and “accelerated transformation” scenarios. AMS are likely to strengthen
their policies and measures, but probably not enough to achieve accelerated transformation.
• Therefore, the measures featured in the “accelerated transformation” scenario are intended
to illustrate the scale of the effort needed to achieve transformation. So the scenario is not a
prediction of what will actually happen but rather an explanation of how to achieve accelerated
transformation.
• Each of the ASOEN Working Groups may wish to conduct a similar scenario planning exercise.