Vulnerability and Risk Assessment to Climate Change in Sagar Island, India

Inhabitants of low-lying islands face increased threats due to climate change as a result of
their higher exposure and lesser adaptive capacity. Sagar Island, the largest inhabited estuarine island
of Sundarbans, is experiencing severe coastal erosion, frequent cyclones, flooding, storm
surges, and breaching of embankments, resulting in land, livelihood, and property loss, and the
displacement of people at a huge scale. The present study assessed climate change-induced vulnerability
and risk for Sagar Island, India, using an integrated geostatistical and geoinformatics-based
approach. Based on the IPCC AR5 framework, the proportion of variance of 26 exposure, hazard,
sensitivity, and adaptive capacity parameters was measured and analyzed. The results showed that
19.5% of mouzas (administrative units of the island), with 15.33% of the population at the southern
part of the island, i.e., Sibpur–Dhablat, Bankimnagar–Sumatinagar, and Beguakhali–Mahismari, are
at high risk (0.70–0.80). It has been concluded that the island has undergone tremendous land system
transformations and changes in climatic patterns. Therefore, there is a need to formulate comprehensive
adaptation strategies at the policy- and decision-making levels to help the communities
of this island deal with the adverse impacts of climate change. The findings of this study will help
adaptation strategies based on site-specific information and