Land Use and Land Cover Change Monitoring and Prediction of a UNESCO World Heritage Site: Kaziranga Eco-Sensitive Zone Using Cellular Automata-Markov Model

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査読付論文
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The Kaziranga Eco-Sensitive Zone is located on the edge of the Eastern Himalayan biodiversity
hotspot region. In 1985, the Kaziranga National Park (KNP) was declared a World Heritage
Site by UNESCO. Nowadays, anthropogenic interference has created a significant negative impact
on this national park. As a result, the area under natural habitat is gradually decreasing. The current
study attempted to analyze the land use land cover (LULC) change in the Kaziranga Eco-Sensitive
Zone using remote sensing data with CA-Markov models. Satellite remote sensing and the geographic
information system (GIS) are widely used for monitoring, mapping, and change detection
of LULC change dynamics. The changing rate was assessed using thirty years (1990–2020) of Landsat
data. The study analyses the significant change in LULC, with the decrease in the waterbody,
grassland and agricultural land, and the increase of sand or dry river beds, forest, and built-up
areas. Between 1990 and 2020, waterbody, grassland, and agricultural land decreased by 18.4, 9.96,
and 64.88%, respectively, while sand or dry river beds, forest, and built-up areas increased by
103.72, 6.96, and 89.03%, respectively. The result shows that the area covered with waterbodies,
grassland, and agricultural land is mostly converted into built-up areas and sand or dry river bed
areas. According to this study, by 2050, waterbodies, sand or dry river beds, and forests will decrease
by 3.67, 3.91, and 7.11%, respectively; while grassland and agriculture will increase by up to
16.67% and 0.37%, respectively. The built-up areas are expected to slightly decrease during this
period (up to 2.4%). The outcome of this study is expected to be useful for the long-term management
of the Kaziranga Eco-Sensitive Zone.

 

著者:
Nath
Nityaranjan
Sahariah
Dhrubajyoti
Meraj
Gowhar
Debnath
Jatan
Lahon
Durlov
Chand
Kesar
Farooq
Majid
Chandan
Pankaj
Singh
Suraj Kumar
Kanga
Shruti
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