Projecting Urban Expansion by Analyzing Growth Patterns and Sustainable Planning Strategies—A Case Study of Kamrup Metropolitan, Assam, North-East India

This research focuses on the urban expansion occurring in the Kamrup Metropolitan
District—an area experiencing significant urbanization—with the aim of understanding its patterns
and projecting future growth. The research covers the period from 2000 to 2022 and projects growth
up to 2052, providing insights for sustainable urban planning. The study utilizes the maximum
likelihood method for land use/land cover (LULC) delineation and the Shannon entropy technique
for assessing urban sprawl. Additionally, it integrates the cellular automata (CA)-Markov model and
the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) for future projections. The results indicate a considerable shift
from non-built-up to built-up areas, with the proportion of built-up areas expected to reach 36.2% by
2032 and 40.54% by 2052. These findings emphasize the importance of strategic urban management
and sustainable planning. The study recommends adaptive urban planning strategies and highlights
the value of integrating the CA Markov model and AHP for policymakers and urban planners. This
can contribute to the discourse on sustainable urban development and informed decision-making.