- English
Groundwater provides the principal irrigation lifeline for the semi-arid reaches of the Malwa Region of Northwestern
India, yet its long-term sustainability remains increasingly uncertain. Using 25 years (2000–2024) of Central Ground
Water Board (CGWB) monitoring-well data, this study mapped annual pre- and post-monsoon groundwater levels and
identified statistically significant declines in 12 of 14 districts. It is observed that zones with water tables deeper than
20 m expanded dramatically from 2 km² in 2000 to 16,559 km² in 2024, where the steepest depletion observed in Sangrur
and Barnala district with − 1.35 m yr⁻¹ and − 1.26 m yr⁻¹ depletion respectively, marking the region’s principal hotspot of
depletion. A concurrent doubling of registered irrigation tubewells from 0.56 million to 1.12 million, aligns with flat-rate
electricity subsidies and intensification of the rice–wheat rotation, highlighting policy-driven over-abstraction. Additionally,
Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) data reveal a persistent west-to-east rainfall
gradient (115–1365 mm yr⁻¹), offering limited natural recharge where depletion is most severe. The integrated attribution
analysis further revealed that tubewell density (r = 0.67) and paddy acreage (r = 0.58) exert the strongest controls on
groundwater decline, jointly explaining 71% of the variation in depletion trends in the multiple regression model. Random
Forest regression also confirmed tubewell density as the dominant predictor of long-term groundwater decline. Overall, the
results reveal an intensifying human influence over groundwater decline, driven primarily by the expansion of irrigation
tubewells and the persistence of the rice – wheat system. These findings call for integrated policy action that combines
demand management, crop diversification, and managed aquifer recharge with rationalized energy pricing to moderate
groundwater abstraction. The study offers a concise, data-driven framework that can guide adaptive groundwater governance
and sustainable water-energy planning across semi-arid agricultural regions.
- English
