- English
Forest ecosystems of the western Himalaya are simultaneously shaped
by steep topography, intense human pressure and a rapidly warming
climate. This study assesses the spatial distribution and future changes
in forest resilience potential (FRP) across Uttarakhand, India, under
current conditions and future high-emission climate scenarios. We
developed a multivariate resilience potential index integrating environmental
variables including net primary productivity, soil moisture,
drought index, slope, temperature, and fire risk, derived from remote
sensing datasets and climate projections. Current FRP exhibits sharp
spatial contrasts: interior mountain districts (Chamoli, Bageshwar,
Rudraprayag) are dominated by High-FRP pixels (>70%) owing to
dense, contiguous canopy and low fragmentation, whereas the urbanized
plains of Haridwar and Udham Singh Nagar are almost exclusively
Low-FRP. Future projections indicate potential shifts, with
projected declines in resilience particularly for mid-elevation areas,
such as Pithoragarh and Dehradun. Environmental drivers, including
temperature increases and altered precipitation patterns, were
strongly associated with projected resilience reductions. Results of
this study contribute important spatially explicit insights into forest
resilience dynamics in the Western Himalayas and highlight the necessity
for integrating resilience assessments into regional planning
efforts to sustainably manage forest resources under projected climate
change conditions.
- English
