- English
Ecological conservation has become a core issue of global concern, and ecosystem services (ES) are fundamental
to achieving sustainable development. However, integrated assessments of ES dynamics, spatial heterogeneity,
and future land use scenarios in Mongolia remain insufficient. This study utilized Land Use and Land Cover
(LULC) data from 2000 to 2021 and integrated the Patch-Level Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model with the
Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs Assessment (InVEST) framework. By applying Moran's I, the Local Indicator of
Spatial Association (LISA), and the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic, this study revealed historical spatial clustering patterns
of ecosystem services and assessed their future dynamics under three land-use development scenarios. The
mainly results show that: (1) From 2001 to 2021, Mongolia's ES exhibited a persistent and significantly clustered
north-high, south-low spatial gradient; (2) Validation against 2020 reference data demonstrated the robustness
of the PLUS model for Mongolia-scale LULC simulation (OA = 0.9039, Kappa = 0.8082); (3) Under future
scenarios (2020–2040), Natural Development Scenario (NDS) maintained historical trends, Ecological Protection
Scenario (EPS) promoted vegetation recovery and expansion of ecological land, whereas Urban Development
Scenario (UDS) increased built-up and agricultural land expansion with potential pressure on ecological spaces.
These findings provide scientific insights for balancing ecological conservation and socioeconomic development
and support sustainable land management strategies in dryland regions.
- English
