Urban planning responses to population decline in Japan’s shrinking cities: growth strategies vs. decline management

This paper examines the interplay between pro-growth and smart shrinkage planning approaches to persistent population decline in three small-sized Japanese municipalities: Yubari, Hokkaido; Suzu, Ishikawa Prefecture; and Manazuru, Kanagawa Prefecture. To articulate the extent to which shrinking cities deviate from historically normative pro-growth urban planning practice, this paper proposes an analytical framework to examine policy responses at the municipal level to depopulation across the dimensions of assessment, response, and capacity. Applying this framework to the three case studies reveals heterogeneous local policy approaches. Findings show a spectrum of municipal responses, ranging from outright resistance to proactive adaptation to depopulation, highlighting the heterogeneous application of pro-growth and smart shrinkage policies. This paper argues that despite decades of depopulation, the conceptualization and application of smart shrinkage policies remains inconsistent. This indicates how challenging it may be to reimagine urban planning that does not centre population growth as a normative goal.