Japan's Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions in Light of Global Stocktake

In the outcome document of the Global Stocktake conducted at COP28 in 2023 it was recognised that the global GHG emission pathway is not consistent with the Paris Agreement to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C, and that the opportunities to increase ambition and implement existing commitments are rapidly narrowing. It then states that significant, rapid and sustained reductions in GHGs are needed and asks contributions to a global effort to achieve this. It also encourages all parties to ensure that their next national reduction targets (Nationally Determined Contributions: NDCs) are aligned with the 1.5°C target. Following this outcome of the first Global Stocktake, in the G7 Puglia Summit Leaders' Communiqué of 17 June 2024 , G7 countries, including Japan, expressed their "commitment to submitting ambitious 1.5°C aligned NDCs ".
How, then, should Japan set its future emission reduction targets to be aligned with the 1.5°C target? This article assesses Japan's progress of emission reduction towards the 2030 target, and examines the goal which Japan should set towards the 1.5°C target in the light of international discussions.

• In order to achieve the current Japanese Government target of a 46% to 50% reduction by 2030 (compared to 2013 levels) and the 2050 net zero target, further measures need to be taken to accelerate the pace of emission reductions compared to reductions made so far.
• A linear emissions reduction pathway from 2013 to 2050 Carbon Neutrality is not aligned with the 1.5°C target. To achieve the global 1.5°C-aligned pathway, economically mature developed countries will need to reduce at a faster pace than developing and emerging countries. Furthermore, for developed countries including Japan, it is difficult to claim the alignment with the 1.5°C target unless they set a target to reduce GHG emissions at a faster pace than the global 1.5°C-aligned pathway.
• When countries set their NDCs, in order to claim that their targets are aligned with the 1.5°C target as encouraged by the Global Stocktake, they need to clearly describe the basis of its consistency with the 1.5°C target.