A Scenario Analysis on the Energy Demand and Supply Aiming for the 1.5℃Climate Target

Event: German-Japan Energy Transition Comission, The Second Young Scientists Dialogue
Date: 14 March 2024, Online

This research aims to develop a framework to explore scenarios which are compatible with the global 1.5°C climate target. This entails explorations of socio-economic scenarios, as well as technological assumptions on energy systems, which can be supported by stakeholders at the same time satisfying an emission benchmark. First, we set up three scenarios. Tech-driven Transformation Scenario assumes no transformation on the current socio-economic structure, but the maximum level of implementation of decarbonization technologies, such as renewable energy or imported hydrogen. Socio-economic Transformation Scenario assumes the maximum level of socio-economic structure changes, which are quantified through developing future input-output tables and future person-trip databases, reflecting the scenario narratives. Balanced Scenario assumes medium level of socio-economic change as well as technology implementation. Then, we quantified final energy consumptions, primary energy supplies, and GHG emissions for each scenario. As a result, by comparing them with a benchmark (cumulative GHG emission should not exceed 14.3GtCO2eq), we found that Tech-driven Transformation Scenario cannot stay under the benchmark, which implies the importance of socio-economic change. The scenario needs heavily to rely on negative emission technologies to achieve the benchmark by 2050. We conclude that the framework is useful to provide policy implications to identify possible pathways for a nation to achieve the global 1.5°C goal.