EU-Japan Climate Change Policy Symposium: Use of scenario analysis to form the long-term strategy under the Paris Agreement

Japan adopted its Long-term Strategy under the Paris Agreement (Cabinet decision, 11 June 2019), envisioning a paradigm shift to an economic and social system for zero GHG emissions, without emissions in the second half of the century. With respect to its implementation, the strategy indicates that “the Government will carry out analyses, taking future situational changes into account, based on the best available scientific knowledge, on issues such as the constraints on land, climate, resources and social systems, adverse economic effects and opportunities for growth caused by climate change.”

Analysis and modeling of scenarios represents a powerful means to consider the long-term strategy, as they can be used to evaluate the opportunities and risks for regions and businesses heading towards a decarbonized society. Specifically, this is made possible through the creation of multiple socio-economic scenarios for Japan, and which also account for future uncertainties. These kinds of analyses are widely used in the formulation of strategies, like those focusing on decarbonization in the EU, and their usefulness to evaluate policies in Japan should also be considered.

Moreover, in the business arena, prompted by the rapid increase of ESG investments in recent years, the need for public disclosure and evaluation of measures related to climate change is rising, starting with the response to the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD). Although there are businesses making progress in using scenario analysis to guarantee proper visibility of initiatives in response to climate change-related measures, it is essential to support them by providing information, supporting data, and tools to conduct scenario and model analysis at the national level. With this in mind, we are organizing a workshop inviting organizations and experts from Japan and abroad, to share knowledge and gaps around the topic.