FUTURE INTERACTIONS ACROSS THE NEXUS

Understanding future interactions between nexus elements
through the analysis of scenarios and other diverse visions
of the future, including the understandings of IPLC, is
critical to support policy and management actions today
and contribute to sustainable resource management
and just outcomes for nature and people. Scenarios of
continuation of current trends place biodiversity at risk and
have negative implications for water, food, health, climate
change and NCP. These scenarios also indicate that the
decline in biodiversity will continue unless rapid, integrated
and transformative change is undertaken across the nexus.
On the other hand, scenarios exploring expansion of
nature conservation deliver positive outcomes for all nexus
elements when planned in an integrated and just manner
and coupled with broader measures such as climate
change mitigation, changes in food production, equitable
consumption and sustainable management. Consequently,
transformative change across the food system is central
to unlocking co-benefits for biodiversity, water, nutritional
health and climate change. Human-induced climate change
is expected to impact the entire nexus, becoming worse
over the coming decades. In this respect, scenarios indicate
the importance of early climate change mitigation actions,
with further delays expected to be more costly and leading
to additional trade-offs. In general, scenarios leading to
better outcomes for the nexus elements tend to also
support achieving globally agreed policy goals such as the
SDGs. However, they require flexible and well-functioning
institutions, mainstreaming and enforcing environmental
and pro-sustainability regulations and facilitating
cooperation between countries and societal sectors
such as governments, non-governmental organizations
and businesses, as well as sustainable consumption and
production patterns.