Would the Kyoto Protocol Affect Growth in Russia?

IGES-CP Working Paper 2004
Discussion Paper

In light of the recent argument that rapid economic growth in Russia over the next decade might result in emissions higher than the Kyoto target, thereby putting much needed growth at risk, this paper revisits the discussion on the costs and benefits of ratification of the Kyoto Protocol by Russia.
The paper suggests that evens under a very optimistic economic growth assumption, and even under very conservative assumptions about the decoupling between CO2 emissions and economic growth, Russia still benefits from a net surplus of emissions allowances,
and thus will unlikely see its growth adversely affected by the Kyoto target. In addition, a review of the possible costs and benefits of the Kyoto Protocol suggests that the potential sale of excess allowances far outweighs the other costs.