Why the Second Trump Administration Could Struggle to Undermine Domestic Climate Policies: Obstacles to Backsliding

Briefing Note
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Main Messages
 

  • This briefing note identifies factors which may reduce some of the negative impacts of the Trump
    Administration’s expected efforts to undermine climate policies as well as a few potential areas for
    positive bipartisan climate cooperation.
  • Policies based on laws, such as the climate initiatives in the Inflation Reduction Act, will be very difficult
    to end. The Republican majorities in Congress are very slim, so many specific anti-climate action
    measures, such as halting support for electric vehicle (EV) and battery factories are not likely to pass.
  • Many of President Biden’s regulations will be difficult to reverse, and they were designed to withstand
    court challenges. Changing regulations requires following complex and lengthy procedures, and any
    new Trump administration regulations will be challenged in court by well prepared and financed state
    attorneys general and NGO legal teams, resulting in considerable delays.
  • Trump’s signature economic policies, especially tariffs, immigration restrictions, and deportations,
    could disrupt supply chains and slow economic growth, thereby actually reducing greenhouse gas
    (GHG) emissions, similar to the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. Ironically, these policies could be
    the Trump administration’s unintended major contribution to GHG reductions, although at the
    expense of people’s livelihoods rather than through investments in a sustainable energy transition.
  • Fossil fuel production will not necessarily increase even if Trump succeeds in implementing anti-climate
    and fossil fuel promotion policies, because market conditions are not favourable to increased
    production. US oil and gas production are already at record levels, and no companies bid on a recent
    oil and gas lease sale in Alaska.
  • Expansion of renewable energy may not be slowed significantly even if financial incentives are
    reduced. Technical progress and economies of scale will steadily lower the cost of renewable energy,
    while fossil fuel production costs will increase. Renewable energy is the fastest way to increase
    electricity supply for artificial intelligence (AI) and other sources of increased demand.
  • Many states and cities will individually and collectively continue to implement climate policies,
    including cap-and-trade programs, which will be difficult for the Trump administration to undermine.
  • Several major states including California and Massachusetts have increased staff and funding for their
    attorney general offices in preparation for challenging Trump administration policies.
  • Many US companies are still committed to climate action, since lower GHG emissions reduce input
    costs and increase efficiencies while climate change impacts harm their businesses. Many investors
    and other stakeholders still expect companies to continue increasing the ambition of their climate
    actions.
  • Some limited bipartisan positive climate cooperation may be possible on carbon removal, industrial
    decarbonization, geothermal energy, and carbon tariffs.
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