Socio-economic Impact s of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture

In International Review for Environmental Strategies (IRES) Volume 2 Number 2 (Winter 2001)
Peer-reviewed Article

Analysis of the impacts of climate change on agriculture in India is an important exercise, as it deals with the food security of more than one billion people. This study uses an integrated modeling framework to assess the socio-economic impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture. A crop simulation model is used to estimate the yield changes under various climate change scenarios for two main cereal crops: rice and wheat. Aggregated crop yield changes are then introduced as gradually occurring supply shocks to the economy in an applied general equilibrium model, and the socio-economic impacts of climate change are assessed. The results indicate that the projected large-scale changes in the climate would lead to significant reductions in crop yields, which in turn would adversely affect agricultural production. The economic and welfare impacts, captured through changes in indicators, such as value added and calorie intake, show that climate change would place significant burden on the economy. The results also show that people in the poorer sections of the population are likely to bear a greater share of the burden imposed by climate change. Consideration of carbon fertilization effects resulted in reducing the adverse impacts to some extent. The study also discusses the role of various policies in mitigating the negative impacts of climate change.

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K. S. Kavi Kumar
Jyoti Parikh