Preliminary assessment of Japan's NDC considering long-term nuclear power pathways with a CGE model

Event: 第34回エネルギーシステム・経済・環境コンファレンス
Date: 25-26 January, 2017 (Tokyo, Japan)
Conference Paper

The feasibility of the commitment for climate mitigation encapsulated in the NDC of Japan may be hindered by the uncertain situation of nuclear power supply. We developed scenarios to assess Japan’s NDC under different nuclear power supply paths. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is applied to evaluate the impact on the energy mix, and the mitigation costs in the long term. It was found that the mitigation target set in Japan’s NDC, aiming for 80% emission reduction in 2050, is feasible under several nuclear power supply scenarios. The impact of nuclear power availability on the energy mix and the mitigation costs was relatively small compared to the effect of implementing mitigation.