Spatiotemporal dynamics of bioproduction systems and ecosystem services in the Baroro and Pagsanjan-Lumban watersheds, Philippines

The expansion and intensification of bioproduction systems (BPS) have historically contributed to ecosystem loss and degradation. However, recent studies have shown the ability of BPS to supply multiple ES and its potential to contribute to global biodiversity conservation goals. Hence, this study investigates the changes in BPS and land uses, ecosystem services, and their spatial interactions across two watersheds in the Philippines: the Pagsanjan-Lumban Watershed (PLW) and the Baroro Watershed (BW). The study analyzed remotely sensed land use data from 2000 to 2020 and quantified changes in seven ES: water yield, baseflow, sediment retention, carbon storage, nitrogen retention, phosphorus retention, and runoff regulation. The results showed significant changes in both BPS extent and ES provision over the study period. Non-BPS land uses increased steadily in both watersheds, while BPS decreased in extent. However, changes in ES supply had inverse trends in the watersheds. The PLW showed a decrease in most ES except for nitrogen retention and carbon storage, while the BW exhibited an increase in most ES except for sediment retention and carbon storage. Spatial statistics revealed potential synergies and tradeoffs in both sites at two spatial scales. At a catchment scale, ES in both watersheds were mostly synergistic. However, these observations did not hold at the grid level since local statistics identified localized areas of synergies and tradeoffs for all ES pairs in both watersheds. This finding highlights the importance of considering more localized ES spatial relationships when managing BPS. By understanding these synergies and tradeoffs, better-targeted strategies could promote the development of BPS in previously identified areas where BPS could provide an enhanced number of collocated ES. For instance, cluster maps generated through this methodology could guide policymakers and BPS managers in prioritizing areas for conservation or restoration, enabling interventions that maximize ES benefits and support sustainable watershed management.