Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: Modelling Nature Futures

In Global Environmental Change
Peer-reviewed Article
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The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. This paper describes how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support decision-making. First, we describe key considerations for the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature as a state space where pathways improving nature toward a frontier can be represented, ii) mutually reinforcing key feedbacks of social-ecological systems that are important for nature conservation and human wellbeing, iii) indicators of multiple knowledge systems describing the evolution of complex social-ecological dynamics. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in the review, screening, and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature’s contributions to people, and quality of life.

Author:
HyeJin
Kim
Garry
D. Peterson
William
W.L. Cheung
Simon
Ferrier
Rob
Alkemade
Almut
Arneth
Jan
J. Kuiper
Sana
Okayasu
Laura
Pereira
Lilibeth
A. Acosta
Rebecca
Chaplin-Kramer
Eefje
den Belder
Tyler
D. Eddy
Justin
A Johnson
Sylvia
Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen
Marcel
T.J. Kok
Paul
Leadley
David
Lecl`ere
Carolyn
J. Lundquist
Carlo
Rondinini
Robert
J. Scholes
Machteld
A. Schoolenberg
Yunne-Jai
Shin
Elke
Stehfest
Fabrice
Stephenson
Piero
Visconti
Detlef
van Vuuren
Colette
C.C. Wabnitz
Juan
Jos´e Alava
Ivon
Cuadros-Casanova
Kathryn
K. Davies
Maria
A. Gasalla
Ghassen
Halouani
Mike
Harfoot
Shizuka
Hashimoto
Thomas
Hickler
Tim
Hirsch
Grigory
Kolomytsev
Brian
W. Miller
Haruka
Ohashi
Maria
Gabriela Palomo
Alexander
Popp
Roy
Paco Remme
U. Rashid
Sumalia
Simon
Willcock
Henrique
M. Pereira
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