Assessing forest fire vulnerability with fuzzy‑AHP: insights from Poonch forest division, Jammu and Kashmir

Forest fire is a major calamity that jeopardizes property and human safety while posing a significant threat to forest
resources and the natural ecosystem. Anticipating the likelihood of forest fires and mapping the forest fire vulnerable
areas can offer valuable guidance for effective forest fire control and preventive measures. In recent years, Jammu &
Kashmir has experienced an increase in the frequency of forest fires, but there is a limited understanding regarding its
spatiotemporal dimension. Based on five primary factors viz vegetation type, wind speed, aspect, slope, proximity to
settlements and roads, forest fire vulnerable areas were mapped in Poonch forest division in Jammu & Kashmir using the
Fuzzy-Analytical Hierarchy Process. In addition, the vulnerable map has been validated using actual fire incidents. Forest
fire vulnerable zones classified into four categories (unlikely, low, medium, and high) demonstrated that 65 compartments
covering an area of 97.9 km2
are under the highly vulnerable zone in the Poonch forest division. Almost 47.96%
of the study area falls under medium to highly vulnerable zones. The Fuzzy-AHP-based forest fire vulnerability strongly
correlated with the locations of actually derived fire incidents, as 82.79% of points fall under highly vulnerable areas.