| HOME > Introduction
1. Background The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), which was adopted in May 1992, sets an ultimate objective of stabilizing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous human-induced interference with the climate system. It urges the parties to protect the climate system in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities. The third Conference of the Parties (COP3), in particular, adopted the Kyoto Protocol in December 1997, which includes legally binding commitments for developed countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions an average of about 5% by the target year of 2008 to 2012. While industrialized countries are expected to meet their commitments, there are fewer such opportunities in developing nations. It is expected that the share of GHG emissions by developing countries will exceed that of industrialized countries in the mid 21st century, and a larger portion of the increase will be accounted for by the rapidly industrializing regions of Asia like China, South-east Asian countries, and India, which in total have more than 40 % of the world population. Energy use will be bound to rise as these countries increase their industrial production; provide better basic services such as electric lighting, refrigeration, air conditioning, and health care; use more vehicles for urban transport:, and build new cities that require large quantities of energy intensive construction materials such as iron, cement, bricks and plastics.  Within the region, the most significant increase of energy consumption and GHG emissions will take place in mega-cities which have rapidly expanding populations that enjoy higher living standards and material affluence than the people living in rural areas and smaller cities. Increasing demand for passenger mobility and freight transport will be reliant upon increases in the number of automobiles, which not only create problems such as traffic congestion, air pollution and noise (having serious health and quality of life implications), but that also will be a major cause of increasing energy consumption and CO2 emissions. However, the carbon sink within the mega-cities is primarily urban greenery of insufficient volume to absorb the emitted carbon. There are 15 mega-cities in the region that have a population exceeding five million. Many of them are playing important economic roles as industrial and commercial centers of their countries, receiving larger investments by government and private sectors. These mega-cities also have a significant share in the overall national emissions of greenhouse gases, including CO2 and CH4, but they also emit gases such as CO, NOx, and SOx, and particulate matter. As a consequence of their comparative wealth, these cities are in a better position than the rest of the country to be able to adopt more advanced technological interventions and other measures to protect the global environment. The problems and difficulties the mega-cities are faced with today will be those which smaller cities will be following in the coming future, and actions of mega-cities will be a model for other cities. Thus the study on mega-cities will provide a good basis for countries to consider their comprehensive action strategies to promote sustainable development by employing efficient use of energy and resources to reduce environmental load. However, it is conceivable that emissions reductions strategies must differ from city to city (Delhi and Calcutta are likely to greatly differ), and thus that no single strategy will work for the entire country.  Cities in rapidly industrializing regions of Asia are confronted with multiple tasks for economic development and environmental protection. They tend to give their policy priorities to immediate, local issues and to regard global warming as a long term, distant issue. In fact, however, municipal policy to reduce energy consumption will bring multiple benefits to the community (Figure 3). It will help solve air pollution and traffic congestion problems, and will also facilitate the sustainable development of the city. Cities in Asia must pay more attention to the efficient use of energy and GHG emission reduction. The prerequisite for systematic actions for this is the scientific analysis of GHG emission budgets of cities. This will also generate information about emissions of related short lived gases (like CO, NOx, SOx) and particulate matter because the sources are the same. The short-lived gases have very significant environmental effects, including reductions in the solar energy available to agriculture and marine life, as well as immediate effects on human and ecosystem health.  2. Project Framework This project is multi-year project since year 2001 (APN 2001-18). The project was launched in April 2001 and was led by Prof. Hidefumi Imura and Dr. A. P. Mitra. The project focuses on the dynamics of industrial transformation taking place in Asian cities and analysis of the environmental implications, particularly with regard to energy consumption and GHG emissions. The study aims to collect GHG budget data of selected mega-cities in Asia, to present future scenarios for GHG emissions and carbon cycles of the cities to 2020, and to identify the drivers that cause such changes. The study focuses on sectors and activities of selected mega-cities to identify areas for potentially effective countermeasures through the adoption of locally operational policy instruments. Thus, the research is to provide special consideration and detailed analysis of transportation, residential and commercial sectors, buildings, urban infrastructure, and lifestyles of residents. This study also aims to generate discussion on the role of cities in achieving sustainable and cleaner utilization of resource and energy.  3. Aim and Objectives This study aims to collect GHG budget data of some mega-cities in Asia, and to present future scenarios of GHG emissions and carbon cycle of the cities up until 2020. It is also to generate inventory of various associated short-lived gases like CO, NOx, SOx and particulate matter. The study focuses on sectors and activities for which cities can manage to implement some effective countermeasures by adopting locally operational policy instruments. Thus it gives special consideration to transportation, residential and commercial sectors, buildings, urban infrastructures, and citizens' lifestyles where it needs detailed investigation and analysis. Key sectors are macro economic & social framework, residential & commercial sector, urban transportation sector, municipal solid waste management sector, indirect energy consumption by industry (Figure 2). The study also intends to account both for direct emissions and for embodied emissions, which is a new concept and needs formulation of suitable methodology. The study includes:
In the first place, it is proposed to concentrate on some typical mega-cities in Asia for study. Candidate cities are Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, Shanghai, Manila, Bangkok, Delhi, and Calcutta along with the surrounding urban areas depending upon the availability of data. These cities were selected based on the following considerations:
4. Methodology The first focus of the study is on CO2 generated by fossil fuel combustion and incineration of municipal wastes, and CH4 generated by municipal waste disposal, enteric fermentation etc. The activity data collected also lead to the generation of information about CO, NOx, SOx emissions from target cities. Methodologies are also developed for accounting for the embodied emissions. One of the major tasks is the quality assurance/quality control (QA/QC) of data and their inter-comparison and inter-calibration. Embodied emissions are attributable to the use of energy for the extractive and industrial activities that produce building and paving materials, for the transportation of those goods to the cities, and for the expenditure of energy in construction. It may be the case that for some decades the embodied emissions of Asian cities will exceed the direct emissions, because of the rapid growth of those cities. The GHG budgets are expressed in an inventory form using both top-down and bottom-up approaches. The format of the inventory is basically follow that of the national inventory of GHG emissions and removals as adopted for communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change based on the IPCC methodology. However, an appropriate format that is simpler than the national inventory is worked out, considering the limited data available at the municipal level and the feasibility of data collection. The time horizons to be used is years 1970 (if possible), 1980, 1990, 1995 2000 (if possible), which permits understanding the growth patterns. In the case of household consumption, new studies such as surveys of the population may be necessary to collect relevant data. Effort will be made to get data about the various income-class of population within a mega-city. In the course of developing database and sub-sector models, project review workshops have been held three times a year (Figure 5). Final workshop for each year (i.e. Kitakyushu for 2002 and Honolulu for 2003) is an international workshop which invited external researchers and experts working in the relevant field. The papers and comments made by those experts are utilized to supplement some of the research topics which project members did not cover such as LCA analysis and analysis on hydrological systems.  5. Expected Outcomes In this proposal, the mega-cities will be studied with a holistic approach and therefore all the elements within a mega-city --humans, materials, services, transport, energy etc --will be covered. This study will not only generate inventories of GHGs and other urban air pollutants (including particulates) and their future scenarios but will also provide useful information to policy-makers about priorities for specific economic sectors in which to adopt appropriate measures to reduce the threat of global warming, to improve air-quality, and to promote sustainable development by employing efficient use of energy and resources. All these actions will reduce stress on environment in both the short and long term. 6. Research Organization Steering Group This group will be formed to discuss the general research design and implementation plan of the study, asking the participation of the leaders of case study teams described below. In addition, two regional study groups may be formed in view of the regional characteristics and differences and for convenience of communication: (a) Northeast Asian group studying Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing and Shanghai (for further information, see Members page), and (b) South Asian group studying Manila, Delhi and Calcutta (or Bombay). The two groups will keep close communication, and meet from time to time. Local Case Study Teams Case studies will be conducted by local case study teams which will be consisted of experts from local research institutions and administration who are familiar with the city and have good access to relevant data. Participating Organizations A number of institute/ laboratories/ universities from Japan, China, Korea, Philippines and India will participate in this research with a special role of Urban Research Group of the Institute for Global Environmental Studies (IGES, Japan).  Copyright © 2000-2003 Institute for Global Environmental Strategies All Right Reserved. |