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Initial framework of modelling analysis was modified in the face if data limitation. Basic idea is that the macro socio-economic sector, using generalized maximum entropy (GME) method, makes a future projection of basic variables which can be input to the sub-sector model as an exogenous variable, and then each sub-sector model makes projection of future energy consumption and CO2 emission up to the year 2020. Projection of variables which macro socio-economic sector cannot cover, are estimated by supplementary estimation method such as computational general equilibrium (CGE) method, factor decomposition analysis etc (Figure 4-1-2).
Such supplementary studies mainly deal with the following aspects.
Other aspects such as LCA assessment and water pollution are not covered by the main study, but such aspects are discussed through the presentation by invited speakers at workshops in Kitakyushu and Hawaii.
The degree of achievement of initial objectives are summarized in the Table 4-1-5 below.