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Towards Sustainable Urban Energy Use for Cities in Asia
This workshop is aimed at presenting and discussing the methodologies, results and policy implications of each sector analysis which have been carried out for the past two years under the APN funded project (APN 2001-18 & APN2002-04 (Mega-City Project)). It also aimed at exchanging the information and learning from the other similar ongoing research initiatives on methodology data and results as well as to discuss future research direction and collaboration. Throughout the workshop, the points of discussion are focused around the following key questions:
4. Summary: Workshop organization The workshop was divided into six sessions including a panel discussion at the end of the workshop. Session 1 was dedicated to the presentation of Asian mega-cities and some reflection from Mexico city. Session 2 was focused on urban energy use and urban sustainability. Experience of Asian cities and European cities were discussed in this session and also emphasized the need to reach to research outcomes to policy makers in order to facilitate the urban sustainability. Session 3 was solely dedicated to urban transportation and energy issues since urban transportation remains a key sector where policy interventions are urgent and which also offers significant opportunities to integrate global environmental concerns into locally operational policies. Session 4 investigated the methodology, models and data issues as well as research outcomes in residential and commercial energy use sector, embodies energy and emissions and macro-scale analyses such as CGE modeling approach and optimum energy emission path through MARKAL modeling at urban context. Session 5 drew a bit more holistic view rather than sectoral approach which allowed a better understanding the cities, their environmental transition, their energy use, emissions and few broad but key observations. Session 6 comprised of an informal panel discussion on how to integrate global environmental concerns into the traditional sectoral policies. The Present and Future of Economy, Energy and Environment in Mega-Cities East Asia: In this session One of the Project Leaders of the mega-city project, Prof. Hidefumi Imura addressed the opening of the workshop and summarized the background, issues, objectives and goals of this project in his presentation titled, "Economic development, energy and emission scenarios in rapidly growing cities in East Asia: A comparative study of Beijing, Shanghai, Seoul and Tokyo". The need to carry out research on magacities were mentioned due to the fact that they are:
Prof. Imura highlighted the position of the mega-city project. Firstly, this project is the first attempt in Asia in international multi-sectoral comparative analysis using comparable data sets at city-level. Secondly, it is unique in terms of integrating sub-sector models of macro-economic framework, transportation, residential/commercial, and MSW management, and other supplementary analyses (embodied energy, CGE, etc.). Thirdly, it can also contribute to capacity development of participating researchers for development of a methodology and its application to cities. The research in this project is focusing on the following aspects:
South Asia: The research result of the South Asian group are presented by Dr. A. P. Mitra and Dr. Chhemendra Sharma. They highlighted their activities such as: Primary data collection; Inventory of GHGs and other urban pollutants on direct and indirect sources; future Projections of emissions; data validation; socio-economic scenarios of Mega-cities, and revision of inventories. One of the interesting observations in their study is the estimated benefit of the metro rail construction in Delhi which is under development. Total track to be built in first and second phase is 51 km, total expected investment in first and second phase (= $ 10 billion), and expected completion date for first and second phase is March 2005. Expected benefits of metro railway development are: 2600 less buses on road (saving of 7.8 million litres of diesel); increase in average speed of road buses from 10.5 km/hr to 14 km/hr, saving 26 lakh man hours due to reduced journey time; saving in fuel cost worth Rs 500 crores; and improvement in air quality. The result of the case study of Manila is outlined some of the facts and current situation of the city, and their future scenarios: Vehicle registration for the entire country and for the Metro Manila region still continue to increase (1981 to 2000) at average annual growth rates of 7.8% for the Philippines and 6.9% for Metro Manila. Metro Manila's share in the country's vehicle count for the period is averaged at 41 (40.6%). The share however has been decreasing from 44% (44.35) to 35% (34.63%). Certain vehicle-fuel types however have greater shares. Gasoline-fueled cars in Metro Manila, for example, contribute to almost 70% of the gasoline cars' population in the country. The number of gasoline-fueled vehicles in the area has been decreasing, while the diesel-fueled vehicles continue to increase in number. Metro Manila's vehicle fleet is mostly composed of Cars (39% to 49%); Utility Vehicles (35% to 42%); Motorcycles/Tricycles (8% to 13%); Trucks (5% to 7%) and Buses (1%). Decrease in electricity consumption for Metro Manila in the years 1984 to 1986 reflected the worsening economic and political (1983-assassination of a political icon - Ninoy Aquino and the 1986 People Power Revolution) conditions at that time. For most years in the 1981 to 2000 period, the commercial sector of Metro Manila consumed approximately 40% of the total electricity consumption while the remaining 60% is being shared by the residential and industrial sectors. Average annual growth rates for the sectors are as follows: total consumption 4.8%; commercial 5.35%; residential 5.1%; industrial 3.73%; and streetlight 2.57%. Despite changes in the pattern or trend of emission factors (based on the power generation mix), CO2 emissions almost reflected the same trend as electricity consumption. The average annual growth rates of emissions for the sectors are as follows: total consumption 6.42%; residential 6.72%; commercial 6.96%; industrial 5.33%; and streetlight 4.15%. Mexico City: Energy, Mobility and Sustainable Urban Development: The case study of the Mexico City is presented by Mr. Gabriel Quadri de la Torro. With regard to urban structure in Mexico City, urban sprawl grows faster than population, which results in a ever sparser city, lower densities and urban decay in downtowns. Urban decentralization and urban sprawl, low densities and land use specialization have three discernible impacts besides segregation and exclusion. Some of the pressing agenda which the city is facing now are:
Energy and Urban Sustainability MSW Management and Energy Recovery: This sub-sector analysis is done by Prof. Yoon and Prof. Jo in Korea. Tentative policy implications from their study are the following: to increase recycling/ reuse rate of MSW & to develop more effective policy strategies; and to reduce food waste generation & its utilization. In case of Beijing & Shanghai, need for new facilities, policy instruments, and citizen participation are emphasized. For Seoul, the suggestion are to increase the operation rate of incineration plants (current rates: 36%); and to benchmark the operation of Tokyo incineration plants. And, for Tokyo, to refer to LFG utilization in Seoul.
European Experience: Professor Peter Pearson from Imperial College London presented the collaborative project between Imperial College & GLA (former LRC), "The Reference Sustainability System (RSS) Project". RSS is a network model for investigating the environmental sustainability of cities and its purpose is to develop the RSS to represent urban energy, resource and material flows. It is also aimed at conducting systematic assessment of potential of technology & resource management strategies to enhance sustainability. The methodology utilized the optimization as well as simulation approaches for energy, paper, water and solid wastes. Urban Transportation and Energy Case of East Asian mega-cities: In this session, firstly, the results of a comparative study on transportation, energy and environment in Beijing, Shanghai, Seoul and Tokyo is presented by Prof. Kebin He from Tsinghua University of China. In Beijing and Shanghai, traffic volume has been increasing rapidly and trend will continue, and thus creates greater pressure on the environment. The number of bus has been gradually declining. Beijing is now developing the subway network system, but its construction is lagged to accommodate the rapid increase in the travel demand. On the contrary, Tokyo has a good urban railway networks and the development of road transport seems to be stable in Seoul, though development trend is slowing down. With regard to energy consumption and CO2 emission, with only 1/10 of Tokyo's fleet, Beijing and Shanghai's fleet tend to consume equivalent amount of oil and emit amount equivalent CO2 which implies the need for improving fuel economy in Beijing and Shanghai. There is also a need to develop urban transport, especially large-scale public transport and adjusting transport structure. Regarding pollutants emission, smaller vehicle fleets produce much more emission amount in Beijing and Shanghai. The results proposed further reduction of the VMT of vehicles, stronger control of in-use vehicles, and need to address emission issue urgently in the cities before it gets out of hand. The largest contributors of pollutant emission in each city are: small bus and motorcycle in Shanghai, small truck in Tokyo, large truck in all the cities, especially for its PM emission. The need for innovative policies in those area are emphasized. US and international experience: Mr. Roger Gorham from EPA, USA presented the initiative of energy use and emissions from urban transportation. The approach to understand and tackling the transportation-energy-environment problems through ASIF framework was presented. In this approach, the emissions are the functions of:
Urbanization, transportation and Land Use: Based on his experience at the World Bank, Dr. James Ford from the World discussed the issue of urbanization, transportation and land use. According to Dr. Ford, countries or regions that develop national or regional strategies have more instruments and more options in terms of managing the consequences of growth. Well-designed intergovernmental fiscal systems can create effective incentives for local and regional administrations to make prompt and appropriate choices for transportation, planning, land management and land use. Within limits, new communities and new towns can channel growth to particular locations. In addition, intercity transportation and communications alternatives can influence the location of growth, as well as the rates of growth at these locations. Naturally, these options vary with fiscal/financial capacities. China is at least one case that would be appropriate here. Given this situation, he goes on to suggest the list of possible actions which cities and developing countries can take as following:
Modeling and Data Issues Modeling of urban development, energy and environment: Based on the experience in modeling exercise in present Mega-City project, Prof. Shinji Kaneko from Hiroshima University presented the issue, complexities and difficulties of comparable modeling analysis at different cities. He stressed the issue of balancing the comparability of each city and the data availability of each city and explained how East Asian group has created the comparable set of data for Beijing, Seoul, Tokyo, and Shanghai. He identified the challenges of the project as following: Modeling technique, integration of sector models, integration of top-down and bottom-up approaches and explained each in detail. Prof. Kaneko also mentioned the complementary modeling method employed in this project such s CGE modeling, embodied energy analysis, and transportation analysis based on Origin-Destination survey data. Lifestyles and energy consumption in households and commercialsectors: Prof. Toru Matsumoto from Kitakyushu University presented the result of sub sector analysis on Residential and Commercial (Res/Com) sector in the Mega-City project of East Asian group. The results highlighted the rapid growth of energy consumption in Beijing and Shanghai in the next 20 years while Tokyo and Seoul will saturate their consumption level by the year 2020. Res/Com sector analysis has also had a difficulty in data collection and he suggested the future directions are as followings: improvements in data and model structures, two directions, more simplified model to deal with same structure as other mega-cities or complete, bottom-up model which model variables can be closely based on policy options; and scenario analysis. The present model can incorporate a number of policy interventions in the areas of household attributes, lifestyle factors, architectural characteristics, characteristics of energy devices, and carbon intensity in energy consumption. Experience in Shanghai: On behalf of Prof. Chen of Shanghai Academy of Environmental Science who could not attend the workshop, Dr. Tae Yong Jung introduced the results of the Prof. Chen's case study on Shanghai's energy consumption. The study was based on the MARKAL model. This was basically a reference energy system modeling with optimizing supply and end use demand side through intermediate energy carriers on cost minimization basis. A number of scenarios were introduced mainly on technology interventions. Results were overwhelming which highlighted the role of policies and quantified the emissions reduction under policy inteerventions. Integration of Urban and Global Policies: CO2 emissions from energy use in East Asian mega-cities: Driving factors, challenges and strategies: Dr. Shobhakar Dhakal estimated the CO2 emissions from energy use for Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing and Shanghai by sector and fuel type and compared the emission performance of these cities. The results showed that Tokyo was outstanding in terms of emission per unit economic activities and per capita emissions. Trends of these cities are studies over time and observations are drawn. The driving factors of CO2 emission were decomposed by factor decomposition method and the relative contribution of each factors on CO2 emission at total as well as sectoral levels are investigated. The results have suggested that income effect was primarily responsible for majority of CO2 emissions in Tokyo and Seoul in high growth period, i.e. 1970-90 for Tokyo and 1990-97 for Seoul. Fuel quality effect and energy intensity effects were largely responsible for reducing CO2 emissions in Seoul and Tokyo, respectively in that period. Despite economic recession, CO2 emissions continue to grow in Tokyo in 1990-98, largely due to energy intensity effect. In case of rapidly industrializing Beijing and Shanghai, income effect was found primarily responsible for increasing emissions while energy intensity effect for decreasing emissions. In transportation sector, vehicle population effect was responsible for the majority of CO2 emissions in all four cities. In case of Seoul, vehicle utilization effect (travel demand per vehicle) was primarily responsible for reducing emissions but in Tokyo, energy intensity effect was primarily responsible. For residential sector, the effects of contributing factors to CO2 emissions are different for Tokyo and Seoul primarily due to the differences in building heating and cooling systems and fuel switching. In Tokyo, most of the emissions from residential sector are attributed to household income effect unlike scale effect (household population effect) to Seoul. Similarly, in Tokyo, energy intensity effect is responsible for reducing emissions but in Seoul, fuel quality effect and income effects are responsible. In Beijing and Shanghai, carbon intensity and energy intensity effects contributed to reduce emissions while income effect and household population effect were majorly responsible for increasing emissions in 1985-90. In Beijing, the volume of emissions has actually decreased in 1995-98 while factors' contributions followed past trends. In case of Shanghai, the emissions volume increased in 1995-98 unlike Beijing; energy intensity actually contributed to increase emissions. For commercial sector, labor productivity effect is dominant in increasing CO2 emissions in high growth period and energy intensity for reducing CO2 emissions in Tokyo and Seoul. In Beijing and Shanghai, energy intensity effect contributed to reduce emissions only in 1990-95 periods. Labor productivity effect contributed to increase emissions in 90s'. Dr. Dhakal observed that in Tokyo, use of technology is already stretched while change in lifestyle and consumer behavior is a key. In Seoul, fuel switching has contributed in past and transport sector in a key. In Beijing and Shanghai, there is a low share of transport sector but emissions growth rate is very high. Managing energy and emissions while meeting needs of growing living standards in these cities were highlighted. The need for followings were discussed: developing energy efficient infrastructures: reducing automobile dependency and "lock-in" effect, promoting energy efficiency in buildings, such as building insulation, efficient central heating and cooling system, and energy efficient appliances , policies to encourage "durable" infrastructure to relieve construction material's consumption pressure, campaign and raising of awareness to less energy intensive lifestyle and energy saving, technology push: promotion of alternative fuel, efficient transportation technology, renewable energy, and utilization of efficient existing technologies, and promoting the culture of comprehensive and integrated planning Panel Discussion The topic for panel discussion center around "How to integrate energy dimension in urban environmental policy and planning, and how to promote capacity building of energy-related studies for developing country cities". The major panelists were: Dr. Shobhakar Dhakal, Roger Gorham, Dr. James Yienger, James Ford, Prof. Peter Pearson, Dr. A.P. Mitra, Gabriel Quadri de la Torro and Dr. Tae-Yong Jung. Prof Hidefumi Imura moderated the panel discussions. Prof. Imura highlighted the need for integration of local and global policies, especially transportation sector and buildings with due consideration to lifestyles, consumption pattern, prices and buildings. IF can emply technological options such as energy recovery from waste, photovoltaic cells, fuel cells, energy savings and others. Conclusion, summary and outcomes Prof. Imura summarized the discussion and outcomes. The followings were highlighted
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